idps-escape

RADAR risk engine roadmap

CTI boolean integration (detailed)

We briefly discuss three approaches for incorporating CTI input from the DECIPHER subsystem of SATRAP-DL.

How to incorporate CTI booleans effectively

Option A - additive CTI score

See our definition above.

Option B - multipliers on risk

Example: if RRCF+signature risk is given by $R_0$, then:

\[R = R_0 \cdot (1 + T)\]

clamped to $[0,1]$.

This can be viewed as causing CTI hits to “boost” the risk.

Example:

$R_0 = 0.45$, $T = 0.3$ → $R = 0.585$ (now medium/high threshold)

Option C — “Gates”

For some CTI signals, we may choose:

This would avoid cases where a highly malicious IOC is underestimated.

Improving the risk engine (on the roadmap)

The following ideas are currently not implemented, but we may include them in future releases.

Temporal persistence weighting

If anomalies repeat:

Rare-event amplification

Anomalies with high confidence but low grade can still matter. We can adjust:

\[A = G^\alpha \times C^\beta\]

with $\alpha < 1$ or $\beta > 1$ to adjust sensitivity.

Per‑user or per‑asset baselines

We can make the system more accurate by normalizing anomaly scores per entity:

Contextual risk modifiers

Add weights based on local business context:

Context Modifier
VIP user +0.15
Crown jewel asset +0.30
External network +0.10
Privilege escalation involved +0.20

These can be added into $S$ (signatures) or applied multiplicatively to $R$.

Confidence propagation

Propagate low-confidence CTI labels or uncertain anomaly signals as “soft boosts” rather than hard booleans.

Track risk over a sliding window

Instead of reacting on single events, maintain:

\[R_C = \max(R_N, RPE)\]

where $R_C$ denotes cumulative risk, $R_N$ current risk value, $RPE$ representing the rollup past $n$ events.

This may turn out to be effective for APT-style stealthy attacks.